K-man's pogo.com Informational Pages

As most pogo players know, there are two ways one can win real money on pogo.com (by playing games that have a "$" sign next to them on the main pogo games page). One way to win a cash prize is to collect tokens, then "cash in" your tokens to purchase tickets (chances) to win daily, weekly, and monthly cash prize drawings. The second way to win is to win a jackpot for a particular game. This page will discuss both of these methods for winning a particular prize in more detail.

Many of the games on pogo.com allow you to win "tokens" based on your play in a particular game. The games that allow you to do so are primarily those listed under "casino games", though a few other games also allow you to win tokens. But what can you do with the tokens you win by playing these games?

The answer is that at any time, you can "cash in" these tokens to purchase "tickets" for daily, weekly, and monthly prize drawings. Each day, pogo holds a daily prize drawing ("lotto") for those players who have purchased daily tickets; the daily prize drawing is for $50. Similarly, once per week a lotto is held for a $250 prize, and once per month, a lotto drawing is held for a $1000 prize. (These amounts and time periods may vary, but are correct at the time of the writing of this page).

So, what are your chances of winning any one of these particular lotto drawings? While we can't calculate the precise odds of winning one of these lotto drawings, we can estimate approximate odds based on some educated guesses:

At any given time during some random day, we can usually expect to see around 50,000 players online at pogo.com. We can probably assume that an average number of unique players per day might be say 240,000 people. Of these players, about 2/3 of them play token-oriented games. Let's assume that these players are pretty good players and that each day on average they win about 10,000 tokens which they cash in for tickets. And let's assume that they distribute their tokens evenly between the three different lotto drawings (daily, weekly, monthly). So during a given month, a typical token-earning player might cash in 100,000 tokens (1,000 tickets) for each of the three drawings.

We can then calculate the approximate number of tickets in play for the daily, weekly, and monthly drawings based on these numbers. Per day, we can estimate around 50,000 players cashing in for 100 tickets each for a total of 5 million tickets in play per day. We can extrapolate from that and guess on average there are therefore 35 million tickets in play for the weekly drawings, and about 150 million tickets in play for the monthly lotto drawings.

So therefore if on a given day you decide to cash in 10,000 tokens to purchase 100 tickets for a daily $50 lotto drawing, your chance of competing against all the other players who have decided to do the same thing are about one in 50,000, so you could expect to win the $50 daily lotto drawing only about once every 50,000 days (once in 150 years!).

These odds are quite dismal of course, so one way you could increase your odds of winning a daily lotto drawing is by cashing in more tokens for tickets. Let's assume that instead of cashing in 10,000 tokens, you have played on pogo for quite some time and you cash in say 1 million tokens with which you purchase 10,000 tokens. Your odds for winning the daily lotto drawing go way up if you do this (if we still assume an average of 5 million tickets per day, your chance of winning the daily drawing with 10,000 tickets entered is now a much better 1 in 500). However, keep in mind that even with these odds, you'd have to cash in 1 million tokens 500 times to win just one $50 daily drawing (still dismal odds).

Through all of this, we are making lots of assumptions about how many unique players play on pogo, and how many of them actually do purchase tickets. It might be the case, for example, that on one particular day only 1 million tickets are purchased for a daily drawing, while the next day 10 million tickets might be purchased. Our odds of winning depend a lot on how many tickets we're competing against on a given day, and unfortunately we don't have access to this information.

We might, for example, figure that we have a better chance of winning if we save our tokens and cash them in all at once; but then again, many other players might have the same idea and we might end up competing against them on the same day or week or month. Or, some folks might figure that if they enter the daily drawing every day they'll have a better chance of winning.

So what's the answer? How can we figure out how to increase our odds of winning a lotto drawing? Optimally, we would want to cash in the maximum number of tokens possible on a day/week/month when the total number of tickets purchased by other players is low. But we don't have access to this information. If we decide, for example, that October 12 is our lucky day and we purchase all the tickets we can possibly purchase on that single day, there might be 1000 other people thinking the same thing for that particular day.

My best guess, therefore, is that on average any single individual will have slightly better overall odds of winning

Copyright© 2000-2014 Kennedy Lemke