K-man's pogo.com Informational Pages

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Keno

Pogo changed their Keno game so that there is no longer a daily lotto drawing just for Keno. Instead, you now earn tokens that you can trade in for daily/weekly/monthly lotto drawings, just like you do in all of pogo's other token-earning games.

Scroll down past the keno odds table for a description of this game/table

Pogo.com keno odds table (prior to April, 2001)

M\P 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
10 Jackpot!
1 in 8,911,700
0.00% (varies)
- - - - - - - - -
9 200,000
1 in 163,380
0.00% (30.60)
200,000
1 in 1,380,700
0.00% (36.21)
- - - - - - - -
8 50,000
1 in 7,384
0.01% (33.75)
50,000
1 in 30,681
0.00% (32.59)
150,000
1 in 230,114
0.00% (34.80)
- - - - - - -
7 2,500
1 in 620
0.16% (32.22)
10,000
1 in 1,689
0.06% (29.60)
35,000
1 in 6,231
0.02% (32.00)
100,000
1 in 40,979
0.00% (36.60)
- - - - - -
6 500
1 in 87
1.15% (34.50)
1,000
1 in 174
0.57% (28.60)
2,500
1 in 422
0.24% (23.67)
10,000
1 in 1,366
0.07$ (36.60)
50,000
1 in 7,753
0.01% (32.25)
- - - - -
5 200
1 in 19.4
5.14% (25.70)
250
1 in 30.7
3.26% (32.60)
500
1 in 54.6
1.83% (36.60)
1,000
1 in 116
0.86% (34.56)
2,000
1 in 323
0.31% (30.96)
15,000
1 in 1,550
0.06% (32.25)
- - - -
4 50
1 in 6.8
14.73% (14.73)
75
1 in 8.8
11.41% (22.82)
50
1 in 12.3
8.15% (24.45)
100
1 in 19.2
5.22% (26.10)
250
1 in 35
2.85% (20.85)
500
1 in 82.7
1.21% (30.25)
3,000
1 in 326
0.31% (30.63)
- - -
3 10
1 in 3.7
26.74% (-26.74)
20
1 in 4.1
24.61% (24.61)
25
1 in 4.7
21.48% (21.48)
25
1 in 5.7
17.50% (17.50)
50
1 in 7.7
12.98% (25.96)
100
1 in 11.9
8.39% (33.56)
250
1 in 23
4.32% (34.56)
750
1 in 72.1
1.39% (34.75)
- -
2 2
1 in 3.4
29.53% (-29.53)
2
1 in 3.2
31.64% (-31.64)
2
1 in 3
32.81% (-32.81)
2
1 in 3.1
32.67% (-32.67)
2
1 in 3.2
30.83% (-30.83)
4
1 in 3.7
27.05% (-27.05)
5
1 in 4.7
21.26% (-21.26)
50
1 in 7.2
13.88% (27.76)
250
1 in 16.6
6.01% (30.05)
-
1 1
1 in 5.6
17.96% (-17.96)
1
1 in 4.5
22.07% (-22.07)
1
1 in 3.8
26.65% (-26.65)
1
1 in 3.2
31.52% (-31.52)
1
1 in 2.8
36.35% (-36.35)
2
1 in 2.5
40.57% (-40.57)
2
1 in 2.3
43.27% (-43.27)
3
1 in 2.3
43.09% (-43.09)
3
1 in 2.6
37.97% (-37.97)
50
1 in 4
25.00% (25.00)
0 0
1 in 21.8
4.58% (-4.58)
0
1 in 15.7
6.37% (-6.37)
0
1 in 11.3
8.93% (-8.83)
0
1 in 8.2
12.16% (-12.16)
0
1 in 6
16.66% (-16.66)
0
1 in 4.4
22.72% (-22.72)
0
1 in 3.2
30.83% (-30.83)
0
1 in 2.4
41.65% (-41.65)
0
1 in 1.8
56.01% (-56.01)
0
1 in 1.33
75.00% (-75.00)
Total EV 92.69 146.95 104.71 75.01 26.18 5.72 -30.17 -22.23 -63.93 -50.00

The above table might be a bit too big to print on a single page. For a more printable table showing only the "10", "9", "8", and "7" number columns (the ones that are played most frequently), click here

This is the keno odds table for pogo.com's Keno Jackpot game. This table gives you the actual payoff values that are used on pogo.com, the odds of matching X numbers, and the Expected Value of each payoff (the odds of matching that many selected numbers times the number of tickets you win if you do so).

For more detailed information on odds, see: http://www.conjelco.com/faq/keno-odds.html. This is where I got the information on the odds of hitting various combinations of numbers, and it has detailed information on how to calculate the odds.

The best way to interpret the table above is to look at the last line ("Total Expected Value"). Think of the numbers in this line like this: for every 100 tickets you bet (1 ticket or "1 game" at a time), you'll get your 100 tickets back, plus the values on this line (so if you play 5 numbers, your average return will be your 100 plus 5.72 tickets for a positive expected value). It's therefore simple to see, looking at this table, that it's fruitless in the long run to bet 4, 3, 2, or 1 numbers (negative expected value), and that if you're just looking to maximize the number of tickets you win and you don't care about the jackpot, betting 9 numbers is the best bet.

Unfortunately, we never know the total number of people who win 1 or more tickets for the nightly keno lotto or how many tickets they have entered (even on average), so it's impossible to predict at what jackpot value it would be prudent to bet 10 numbers instead of 9. Regardless of what that point is, it is still always better (in terms of expected ticket returns) to bet 10 tickets than to bet 7 or less.

For a practical interpretation of the table, consider playing 10 numbers: each keno game takes about 97 seconds to play. Including intermissions, there are about 69 games per 2-hour period, or 828 games per day (If you play 24 hours per day).

Therefore, playing 10 numbers, you should expect to come up matching 0, 1, 2, or 3 numbers (for 0 tickets) almost 80% of the time, or about 650 of these 828 games. You'll match 4 numbers (1 tickets) 15% of the time, or about 124 times, 5 numbers (5 tickets) 42 times, 6 numbers (30 tickets) about 10 times a day, 7 numbers (200 tickets) about once a day. And you can expect to match 8 numbers (2,500 tickets) about once every 9 days, 9 numbers (50,000 tickets) once or twice a year (every 197 days on average), and you should hit the JACKPOT--10 numbers out of 10 about once every 29 and a half years. In one day of play (24 hours worth), you can expect to win on average about 834 tickets (except on those rare days when you hit an 8/2,500 or a 9/50,000 when you'll win more). If you can win more than 834 tickets in a single day, you're doing great!

You'll do slightly better ticket-wise to play 9 numbers. If you do so, you can expect to match 0, 1 or 2 numbers (for 0 tickets) 60% of the time, or about 500 times a day (out of 828 tries), 3 numbers (1 tickets) about 25% of the time or about 207 times a day, 4 numbers (2 tickets) about 11% of the time or 91 times a day, 5 numbers (10 tickets) about 27 times a day, and 6 out of 9 numbers (50 tickets) should come up about 5 times per day. 7 out of 9 numbers matched (500 tickets) will occur roughly once every 2 days, 8 numbers (10,000 tickets) will get matched about once every 37 days, and you can expect to match 9 out of 9 numbers about once every 4 and a half years. In one day of playing 9 numbers (24 hours worth), you can expect to win on average about 909 tickets, but every couple of days you'll probably get more like 1,409 tickets (except on those rare days when you hit an 8/10,000 or a 9/500,000 when you'll win more). If you can win more than 909 tickets in a day playing 9 numbers, you're doing great!

Of course, another way to look at this (rather than: "I'll win the jackpot once every 29 and a half years") is to realize that there are a few thousand people online; the bonus will be won eventually by one of them, and it might as well be you! BTW--if there are on average say 3,650 people online playing keno, the jackpot should be won on average about every 3 days. With half as many people, every 6 days, and so on...